Ryder Sees Up To $250 Million Or More From Freight Upturn, With Only $40 Million Landing In 2026
CEO John Diez says rental and used-truck gains are early, and the company raised its 2026 earnings forecast.
Ryder System, which provides outsourced logistics and trucking services across North America, estimates a freight upturn could add "$250 million or more" to earnings by the next cycle peak, CEO John Diez said on the company's third-quarter earnings call Thursday. Only about $40 million of that is expected in 2026, he said.
Forty million now, more to come
Diez said most of the potential upturn benefit should come from a recovery in rental and used-vehicle sales in fleet management, plus higher retail volumes through the company's trimmed footprint. The 2026 estimate is about $40 million, up from $20 million in the prior forecast, driven mainly by used-vehicle results and less by rental.
Asked by an analyst at Wolfe Research whether $40 million of $250 million is typical for the first year of an upcycle, Diez said it fits the early cycle. If freight demand accelerates, especially in rental, he said, the number will "spike up" before tapering as the peak nears.
Ryder raised its 2026 comparable earnings forecast to $14.85 to $15.05 a share from $14.40 to $14.80. Third-quarter comparable earnings were $4.33 a share, up 21% from a year earlier. Shares were up 6.85% to $256.77 in Thursday trading.
Rental turns a corner
Tom Havens, president of Fleet Management Solutions, said the quarter was the first in which lease, SelectCare maintenance and rental all posted year-over-year revenue gains, though rental's was small. It was the first year-over-year rental increase since the fourth quarter of 2022, he said, adding that management expects this to be "the inflection point with rental."
Commercial rental utilization hit 77%, the highest since 2022, Diez said. Ryder raised its 2026 rental capital spending forecast to $500 million, up $300 million, and expects its ending rental fleet to grow 8% from the third quarter to the fourth.
Used-vehicle pricing rose 19% for tractors and 5% for trucks from a year earlier. Diez said the tractor figure was helped by about 700 basis points (seven percentage points) from a shift toward retail sales.
Structural gains and spending room
Separately, Diez said more than $70 million of 2026 benefits from multi-year strategic initiatives do not depend on an upturn. Roughly 60% of expected 2026 revenue comes from the asset-light supply chain and dedicated businesses, versus 44% in 2018.
CFO Christy Gallo-Aquino said Ryder expects about $4.5 billion of flexible capital over three years, about half of its quarter-end market value, for growth and for buybacks, acquisitions and investments. Diez said the company will give its 2027 outlook in February.
Diez said the company will lay out its full-year 2027 outlook in February.
Sources
- First look: almost all strong numbers in Ryder’s third quarter earnings - FreightWaves — freightwaves.com
- Ryder (R) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say — Yahoo Finance
- Ryder: Q3 Earnings Snapshot — Associated Press
- Ryder System Q3 Adj. EPS $4.33 Beats $4.15 Es... — benzinga.com
- Ryder Non-GAAP EPS of $4.33 beats by $0.18, revenue of $3.4B beats by $20M (R:NYSE) — seekingalpha.com
