Coursera CFO: Revenue Losses From Udemy Overlap Are Still 'Theoretical' — Cost Savings Now Top $150 Million
Mike Foley says renewals show no revenue loss from shared customers, while Coursera lifts its annualized gross savings view past $150 million.
Coursera, the online learning platform that bought Udemy, has not yet lost revenue from customers who buy both platforms, CFO Mike Foley told analysts on the company's third-quarter earnings call Thursday. Management also now expects more than $150 million of annualized gross cost savings by year-end, up against a $115 million net synergy target, according to the call and third-quarter results showing $377 million of revenue.
No dis-synergies in the renewals
Asked by a Raymond James analyst about the timing of revenue dis-synergies — sales lost as overlapping customers consolidate — Foley said the original modeling covered customers who buy from both platforms. "We just haven't seen any revenue dis-synergies come through, even with renewals of those types of customers," he said.
Foley called the projected loss "a theoretical calculation" and said there was "nothing really in 2026." Some of it is built into the broad 2027 indications, he said, but "it remains to be seen if they actually play out."
The $115 million net synergy target equals gross savings less about $35 million of potential gross profit impact from those dis-synergies, Foley said, adding that the losses are "ultimately an estimate."
Savings arrive months ahead of plan
CEO Greg Hart said the company is on track to deliver the synergy target eight months after the deal closed on May 11, against an original 24-month plan. Gross savings above $150 million underpin it.
The quarter itself was mixed. Revenue rose 94% to $377 million because of Udemy's inclusion, but on a normalized basis that counts Udemy's pre-close results, it fell about 3%. Adjusted EBITDA was nearly $62 million, a 16.3% margin. Hart said the top line, particularly in consumer, remains below the company's growth ambition.
The 2027 baseline and Helix
Coursera is not giving formal 2027 guidance until its fourth-quarter call. As a starting assumption, Foley said enterprise revenue would be flat to modestly declining and consumer would fall by a low double-digit percentage. Those figures allow for dis-synergies and assume no material contribution from Project Helix, the AI-based skills platform targeted for broad enterprise availability in the first half of 2027.
For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenue of $358 million to $366 million and adjusted EBITDA of $55 million to $59 million. Enterprise net retention was 93%, which Hart said is well below where the company wants it.
The company ended the quarter with about $776 million of cash and securities and no debt. It repurchased about 18 million shares for just over $100 million.
The year-end enterprise renewal cycle will give Coursera its next read on whether shared customers start to shrink, and Foley said formal 2027 guidance follows on the fourth-quarter call.
Sources
- Coursera: Q3 Earnings Snapshot — Associated Press
- Coursera Non-GAAP EPS of $0.21 beats by $0.03, revenue of $377M beats by $8.43M (COUR:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- Coursera: Q3 Earnings Snapshot – WTOP News — wtop.com
- Coursera: Q3 Earnings Snapshot | wusa9.com — Associated Press
- Coursera: Q3 Earnings Snapshot | king5.com — Associated Press
