Coursera Pencils In A Low Double-Digit Consumer Revenue Decline For 2027, Flat-To-Down Enterprise
The CFO's starting 2027 model carries no material revenue from Project Helix and no cross-sell gains, with formal guidance coming next quarter.
Coursera's starting assumption for 2027 is shrinking revenue in both of its segments, CFO Mike Foley said on the company's third-quarter earnings call Thursday: a low double-digit decline in consumer and approximately flat to modestly declining enterprise revenue.
A fourth-quarter baseline for 2027
Coursera, which runs an online learning platform selling courses, certificates and degrees to individuals, employers, campuses and governments, is not giving formal 2027 guidance yet. Foley said it will come on the fourth-quarter call, after annual planning and the year-end enterprise renewal cycle.
For modeling, he said, each segment's fourth-quarter revenue trajectory is "broadly representative" of its normalized full-year 2027 growth rate. The assumptions allow for revenue lost as overlapping customers of Coursera and Udemy combine, and do not rely on cross-sell gains or on a material revenue contribution from Project Helix, the company's new AI-native skills platform. "We're not assuming a Helix-driven growth contribution before the evidence supports it," Foley said.
The baseline follows a fourth-quarter revenue outlook of $358 million to $366 million, with enterprise growth about flat and consumer decelerating further, Foley said. Helix is targeted for broad enterprise availability in the first half of 2027, CEO Greg Hart said.
Enterprise: no upside baked in
An analyst at KeyBanc asked whether the flat-to-down enterprise view was conservative. Hart said enterprise revenue rose 2% year over year on a normalized basis, and management expects performance like this quarter's to continue, with no Helix upside in the 2027 forecast.
Enterprise net retention was 93%, up from 91% last quarter, a figure Hart called well below where the company wants it. He said management is not banking on it as a trend. Foley said more than 90% of logo churn came from accounts with annual contract value under $50,000, and that large North American enterprise customers retain far better.
Consumer is the weaker side. Foley said consumer revenue was $176 million, down 9% on a normalized basis, and that leading indicators are softer than the company wants.
Udemy inflates the reported growth
Coursera closed its Udemy deal on May 11, so third-quarter revenue of $377 million, up 94%, includes Udemy. On a normalized basis that adds Udemy's earlier results, Foley said revenue fell about 3%. Hart said the top line, especially in consumer, remains below the company's growth ambition.
Adjusted EBITDA was nearly $62 million, or 16.3% of revenue. Foley said Coursera expects fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $55 million to $59 million, and that the 2027 margin target will come next quarter. He said a purchase accounting benefit of about $10 million a quarter in 2026 will moderate and weigh on 2027 adjusted EBITDA dollars.
Formal 2027 guidance, including the adjusted EBITDA margin target, arrives on the fourth-quarter call.
Sources
- Coursera: Q3 Earnings Snapshot — Associated Press
- Coursera Non-GAAP EPS of $0.21 beats by $0.03, revenue of $377M beats by $8.43M (COUR:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- Coursera: Q3 Earnings Snapshot – WTOP News — wtop.com
- Coursera: Q3 Earnings Snapshot | wusa9.com — Associated Press
- Coursera: Q3 Earnings Snapshot | king5.com — Associated Press
