AFG Co-CEO Says Apartment Rebound Is Late, Not Lost: 'It's Coming'
Craig Lindner says the multifamily turn is slower than expected, while AFG declares a $3.50 special dividend and posts a record third quarter.
American Financial Group Co-CEO Craig Lindner said on the insurer's third-quarter earnings call Wednesday that the multifamily real estate recovery is "probably coming a bit slower than we would have expected," though he sees an early-stage turn underway.
Late, but still coming
Asked by a Raymond James analyst how expectations had changed since earlier in the year, when the firm had looked for improvement in the second half of 2026, Lindner said signs of early recovery are clear. "It is happening a bit later than I would have expected, but it's coming," he said.
He offered two statistics: units under construction are roughly 50% below their early 2023 peak, and construction starts are running 28% below the 10-year average. After years of heavy building, he said, supply and demand are returning to balance.
Some markets still hold excess supply that will take more time to absorb, he said, though demand remains healthy and construction costs are still elevated. The gap between the cost of owning and renting is "probably as great as we've ever seen since we've been in the business."
Record quarter and a $3.50 special payout
American Financial Group, which sells specialty property and casualty insurance for businesses through independent agents and brokers, reported core net operating earnings of $3.97 per share, up 48% from a year earlier, Craig Lindner said. Co-CEO Carl Lindner III called it the company's highest ever for a third quarter. Part of the boost came from the August sale of the Charleston Harbor Resort and Marina, which added $1.21 per share.
The company declared a special dividend of $3.50 per share, about $290 million, payable November 25 to holders of record on November 16. Special dividends declared since the start of 2021 now total $59 per share, or nearly $5 billion.
Shares of AFG traded at $154.36, up about 0.9% from the prior close, in Wednesday trading, for a market value of $12.7 billion.
Capital to deploy through 2027
Craig Lindner said operations should keep generating significant excess capital through the rest of 2026 and into 2027, leaving room for acquisitions, special dividends or share repurchases. The company bought back $26 million of shares in the third quarter and raised its regular quarterly dividend 10.2% in October.
On the investment side, he said management expects its alternative investment portfolio to return 10% or better annually on average over the longer term. The annualized return on those holdings was about 6.7% in the quarter, against 6.2% a year earlier.
Management said it will next report results for the end of the year, when the multifamily outlook and the use of excess capital will get another airing.
Sources
- American Financial Group (AFG) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates — Yahoo Finance
- American Financial to Pay $3.50 Special Dividend; Logs Higher 3Q Profit, Revenue — MarketWatch
- Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About American Financial (AFG) Q3 Earnings — Yahoo Finance
- American Financial Q3 2026 Earnings Preview (NYSE:AFG) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- American Financial Group, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Results and Declares Special Dividend — businesswire.com
