V2X Lifts 2026 Outlook To $4.95 Billion–$5.1 Billion, Yet Fourth-Quarter Growth Slows To Low Single Digits
The CFO blamed the Middle East, where third-quarter revenue fell 30%, and management held back 2027 growth guidance.
V2X raised its 2026 revenue outlook to between $4.95 billion and $5.1 billion, but CFO Shawn Mural said on the company's third-quarter earnings call Monday that the midpoint implies only low single-digit fourth-quarter growth, "largely the Middle East." V2X, which provides training, supply chain, communications, base operations and aircraft maintenance services mainly to defense customers, also declined to put a number on 2027 growth.
A Middle East drag on the fourth quarter
Third-quarter revenue rose 9% to $1.27 billion, and adjusted earnings per share climbed 19% to $1.64, the company said. Year-to-date revenue is up 16%. The raised guidance also lifts adjusted EBITDA to $352.5 million to $367.5 million, adjusted EPS to $6.15 to $6.55, and adjusted operating cash flow to $175 million to $195 million.
Middle East revenue fell 30% in the third quarter, Mural said, and he expects "a little bit more headwinds" in the fourth. Asked to size the region, he put third-quarter revenue at roughly $240 million to $245 million. He said Kuwait is stepping down, with the company's work there running about $25 million across the whole back half of the year.
CEO Jeremy Wensinger called the region "a very fluid situation." He said the full effect of the Israeli award has not yet shown up, sees opportunities in Balad, and expects Foreign Military Sales, government-to-government arms deals, to expand because of the conflict.
Outside the region, Asia Pacific revenue rose 8% and US revenue rose 31%. Wensinger expects Asia Pacific to be a growth driver in the fourth quarter and into 2027.
2027: direction yes, numbers no
Management expects 2027 growth in revenue, margins, EPS and free cash flow, with recompete exposure, contracts coming up for rebid, of about 6% of revenue. Revenue in the Middle East is expected to be down for the full year. T6, a program that ramped mainly in the third quarter, will contribute a full year.
Pressed for a growth figure, Mural said, "I don't think we want to give guidance yet." Wensinger said the uncertainty is how long customers take to adjudicate awards, and whether "a change in the election cycle" influences that.
On T6, Mural said the program was put at $250 million to $300 million a year at full run rate when awarded, and he sees no reason to expect different. About $100 million has been booked year to date, and more clarity will come with full-year guidance.
Midterm exposure
An analyst, noting the midterm elections were the next day, asked how much of 2027 is vulnerable to the outcome. Wensinger called that "almost impossible" to answer, adding that the company has "shown resilience across many administrations."
Wensinger also said the company is not worried about continuing resolutions, given that its programs are well funded for a period of time.
V2X has $12.8 billion of backlog, $2.6 billion of it funded, and about $1.6 billion of third-quarter awards. Full-year guidance, when management issues it, will carry the 2027 detail.
Sources
- V2X Non-GAAP EPS of $1.64 beats by $0.14, revenue of $1.27B beats by $50M (VVX:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- V2X (VVX) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates — Yahoo Finance
- V2X wins $105M Army contract modification for Middle East operations (VVX:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- V2X Inc. (NYSE:VVX) : Articles :: Law360 — law360.com
- V2X Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results — prnewswire.com
