Tilray CEO Says Market Misprices It As A Pure Cannabis Stock, Offers Three Scenarios
Irwin Simon laid out what Tilray would do if U.S. reform comes, if hemp drinks open up, or if nothing changes, while reaffirming guidance.
Tilray Chairman and CEO Irwin Simon said on the company's first-quarter earnings call Thursday that the market "too often" treats Tilray as a pure-play U.S. cannabis operator, and that the company is not one. Shares traded at $3.55, down about 4% from the prior close in Thursday trading (market data), as the company reaffirmed fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $68 million to $75 million.
What Simon said about the stock
Simon told analysts that "Delays in rescheduling have impacted sediment towards cannabis stocks, including ours." He said Tilray is a global business spanning cannabis, beverage, wellness and pharmaceutical distribution, and "will continue to grow with or without a single regulatory outcome."
He closed the call on the same theme: "sometimes there is frustration how the stock reacts just on a cannabis multiple." He said the company has grown from a $50 million business seven years ago to a pro forma $1.2 billion one.
For guidance, Chief Financial Officer Carl Merton said the company is reaffirming adjusted EBITDA of $68 million to $75 million for fiscal 2027. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $9.2 million, against $10.2 million a year earlier.
The three scenarios
Simon ended the call with a list. If U.S. reform happens, Tilray would be "ready to pounce." If something happens with hemp drinks, "we're ready to go." If nothing happens, businesses around the world "will fuel our growth."
On a possible carve-out for THC drinks in the hemp bill, he said he believed there would be another extension beyond December 11, with the next Congress then approving a limit on milligrams. Tilray, he said, is "hanging around the hoop," selling products and able to "turn on pretty quickly."
He said selling cannabis or hemp drinks across the United States could be "a few hundred million dollars or a billion dollar opportunity" for the company.
The numbers behind the pitch
Net revenue rose 23% to $257.1 million from $209.5 million a year earlier, with beverage revenue at $101.5 million against $55.7 million, including $55.9 million from BrewDog. Simon said BrewDog became profitable in the quarter; he held it up as the template: buy a recognized brand, stabilize it and return it to profit.
The quarter was a net loss of $40 million, versus net income of $1.5 million a year earlier. Adjusted net loss was $3 million, of which $5 million was net cash interest expense. Total cannabis revenue fell to $56.1 million from $64.5 million, and Merton cited about $8.8 million of international price compression.
The stock has fallen nearly 59% since the start of the year while the S&P 500 rose 14%, according to a Seeking Alpha preview.
What to watch
Simon predicted an extension of the hemp rules past December 11. Separately, Tilray is due to begin producing, marketing and distributing Carlsberg's Elephant 1664 and Kronenbourg 1664 Blanc in the United States on January 1, 2027.
Simon's own forecast for hemp, an extension past December 11, is the next dated test of his argument.
Sources
- Tilray Swings to 1Q Loss, but Revenue Climbs on Beverage Growth — MarketWatch
- Earnings Snapshot: Tilray tops Q1 EPS expectations, reaffirms FY27 outlook | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- Tilray Q1 2027 earnings preview: Revenue expected to rise (NASDAQ:TLRY) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
