Hayward CEO Won't Put A Number On 2027, Says Team Should Beat A Flat Market
Kevin Holleran pointed to dealer conversions and an installed base worth over 85% of sales while new pool permits slip.
Hayward Holdings CEO Kevin Holleran declined on the company's third-quarter earnings call Wednesday to size next year's North American volume growth, saying only that he expects his team to do better than the flat market analysts are pricing in. The pool-equipment maker also raised its 2026 outlook to net sales growth of about 5% to 6%.
No number for 2027
A Stifel analyst asked what North American volume growth would look like in a flat market if the dealer conversions Hayward has won reached full run rate. Holleran said conversions take time, because training happens and dealers work through backlogs with another brand. "I don't know if I'm going to put a number on it right now," he said.
If the industry is coalescing around flat volumes, he said, "I would expect our team to deliver something better than that," as already converted accounts ramp up and new ones are added.
On permits, Holleran said new pool permits are modestly down from a year earlier. He said he would not yet call the macro picture improved enough to be more bullish on new construction. The company will use the next couple of months to settle on a 2027 guide, he said, with the midterm elections and more Fed meetings still ahead.
Hayward's shares were up 11.20% to $14.49 in Wednesday morning trading.
An installed base doing the work
Hayward, which designs and makes pool equipment such as pumps, filters, heaters and automation systems, says more than 85% of its sales come from the existing installed base. Holleran argued that maintaining a pool is not discretionary, even though buying a new one is.
He said new U.S. in-ground pool construction has fallen over 20% in three years, while Hayward's guidance implies a cumulative net sales increase of nearly 20% over the same span.
Third-quarter net sales rose 6% to $260 million, and North American sales rose 9% to $226 million on 7% price and 2% volume. Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 29% to $0.18. Adjusted EBITDA rose 9% to $65 million.
Guidance and the early-buy test
Hayward now expects adjusted diluted EPS of 86 cents to 88 cents, up from a prior range of 84 cents to 87 cents. Chief Financial Officer Eifion Jones said the fourth quarter implies net sales flat to up 3%, with volume the moving piece because last year's strong late-season orders are not assumed to repeat.
Holleran said North American early-buy orders for the 2027 season were ahead of the prior year at quarter's end, though price coming through the program was modestly lower. He said early buy has historically been no more than about a third of annual purchases, so it is a good indicator but not decisive.
The company had $331 million left on its $450 million buyback authorization, and has spent about $115 million on repurchases so far this year.
The 2027 outlook, Holleran said, will come after the early-buy period closes and the macro signals clarify.
Sources
- Hayward Holdings beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; raises FY26 outlook | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- Q3 Earnings Ahead Could Change The Bull Case For Hayward Holdings Stock — Yahoo Finance
- Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Was Down in Q3 2026, but This Fund Remains Confident in Its Investment Thesis — Yahoo Finance
- Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates — Yahoo Finance
- Hayward Holdings Inc. : Articles :: Law360 — law360.com
