Constellium CEO Says Q4 Comparison Is 'A Little Bit Flawed' As Analysts Press On Year-End Outlook
Management pointed to outages, tariffs and timing as it explained a fourth-quarter outlook below last year's exceptional quarter.
Constellium CEO Ingrid Joerg told analysts on the company's earnings call Wednesday that "the comparison to Q4 2025 is a little bit flawed in the sense that this was really an exceptional quarter for us," as two analysts pressed on why the year-end outlook steps down even after a record third quarter, when adjusted EBITDA reached $276 million, up 17% from a year earlier.
Why the fourth quarter dips
An analyst from JPMorgan put the implied fourth-quarter figure down about $20 million at the midpoint from a year earlier. Joerg listed the drivers: year-end maintenance work, a recycling outage moved from summer into the fourth quarter, fading automotive gains from the Oswego outage, and Section 338 tariff costs that she said had almost no impact in the third quarter.
Recycling volume will be "a little bit lower," she said, because of the outages and because the company will use fewer used beverage cans in its scrap mix. She still called the quarter "still an excellent quarter for us, historically speaking."
CFO Jack Guo said more holdings and corporate spending is planned for the fourth quarter than the third, and that "you don't have to read too much into it." He called it timing against a full-year plan of about $55 million. Joerg said the company generally has 55 to 60% of its EBITDA in the first half, and that there is "nothing to be concerned about for the start into 2027."
A record quarter and a raised outlook
Constellium, which makes specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products for aerospace, packaging, automotive and other markets, reported third-quarter revenue of $2.6 billion, up 22%, and net income of $119 million versus $88 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA excluding the non-cash effect of metal price lag was $280 million, a third-quarter record and up 43% from $196 million.
The company raised its 2026 target for that measure to $1.03 billion to $1.06 billion, with free cash flow above $300 million. Joerg said the guidance assumes normal seasonality in the fourth quarter, which she said was not the case last year. Free cash flow was $128 million in the quarter, and the company repurchased 1 million shares for $30 million. Shares were down about 2% at $24.02 in Wednesday trading.
2027 projects and the next update
Joerg said she expects aerospace to be significantly stronger next year, with some contracts repriced. The third airware cast house in Issoire is to begin commercial shipments in early 2027, and the recycling center in Neuf-Brisach should reach full capacity in the first half of 2027. A new casting center at Muscle Shoals is expected to start up in mid-2027.
Management said it will update investors on its progress in February.
Management said it will next update investors in February.
Sources
- Constellium (CSTM) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates — Yahoo Finance
- Constellium shares fall as shipments decline, outlook signals slower growth (CSTM:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- Is Constellium Stock a Smart Buy Before Q3 Earnings Release? — Yahoo Finance
- Constellium vs. Ryerson: Which Metal Stock Should You Invest in Now? — Yahoo Finance
- Constellium Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results; — globenewswire.com
