Earnings

Greenbrier Stops Guiding To Its Own Railcar Deliveries, Points To A 26,000-28,000 Industry Forecast

The railcar maker says its growing lease fleet makes its own delivery count a poor gauge of performance.

Matteo Parrino Jonathan Ponciano

Matteo Parrino, Jonathan Ponciano

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Greenbrier Stops Guiding To Its Own Railcar Deliveries, Points To A 26,000-28,000 Industry Forecast

Greenbrier will no longer forecast its own railcar deliveries, CFO Michael Donfris said on the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call Monday, and will instead guide to North American industry deliveries of 26,000 to 28,000 railcars for fiscal 2027.

Why deliveries stopped telling the story

Greenbrier, which designs and builds freight railcars and also leases and manages railcar fleets, says its model has outgrown the metric. Donfris said that as the lease fleet grows, company deliveries have become less indicative of financial performance, because Greenbrier can sell production or keep it for leasing.

CEO and President Lorie Tekorius added that lease originations kept on the balance sheet do not show up as deliveries. Restoration, wheel and maintenance work in manufacturing revenue also sits outside delivery counts, which makes the link to deliveries "not be as tight as we would like."

A Goldman Sachs analyst guessed Greenbrier's share of industry deliveries at "maybe 30% to 40%" and asked whether that implied lower deliveries. Donfris said the range sits around fiscal 2026's level, with the company expecting to do "a little bit better" than 2026. Brian Comstock, Executive Vice President and President of the Americas, said the back half is "less about volume and more about the quality of mix," citing specialty cars, intermodal ramp-ups and firmer pricing discipline.

The fiscal 2027 outlook

Guidance calls for revenue of $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion and earnings per share of $2.75 to $3.75, with operating margin of 7% to 7.5%. Comstock said deliveries should be stronger and weighted to the back half, based on order levels of recent quarters.

Capital spending, net of equipment-sale proceeds, is projected at $225 million to $275 million, about 70% of it for growing the lease fleet. Donfris expects leasing and fleet management revenue to grow 12% to 15% and aggregate gross margin to land at 14% to 15%.

The lease fleet, about 21,000 cars after growing roughly 4,000 in fiscal 2026, is projected to reach 22,000 to 23,000 by the end of fiscal 2027.

A weak year, a firmer order book

Fiscal 2026 pushed many customers to delay purchases of long-life railcars, Tekorius said. Greenbrier delivered 15,400 cars, with revenue of $2.5 billion and core earnings per share of $2.60.

Fourth-quarter revenue was $591 million. Orders were 3,400 cars worth about $600 million, the year's highest order value, and backlog rose to 14,000 cars valued at $2.1 billion, its first sequential increase since fiscal 2024. Recurring revenue grew 55% to $175 million, which Tekorius said keeps the company on track to double it within five years.

Tekorius said it was her final call as CEO; Comstock takes the helm in early 2027.

The board declared a quarterly dividend of 34 cents a share, the company's 50th consecutive quarterly payout, Donfris said.

Sources

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