Earnings

Expand Energy Cuts Rigs From Around 12 To 10, Calls Gas Market 'Weakening'

The gas producer is holding back about nine wells and calls 2027 a year of transition, betting on 13 Bcf a day of new demand by 2028.

Expand Energy, a natural gas producer, has cut its drilling program from around 12 rigs to 10 "in direct acknowledgement that the market is weakening," Chief Operating Officer Josh Viets said on the company's third-quarter earnings call on Wednesday. The company is also holding back about nine wells and calls 2027 a year of transition.

Rigs down, wells held back

Viets, answering a JPMorgan analyst, said new supply that arrived late last year, fresh Permian pipeline capacity and the winter outlook are suppressing the 2027 price curve, even with record demand. LNG flows are at all-time highs, he said, and summer power burn set records.

The company pushed about nine turn-in-lines, the step that brings finished wells onto production, out of the third quarter. Viets said Expand is still waiting on them to pick the optimal time to bring them online, and will keep that flexibility through 2027.

Fourth-quarter production guidance runs 7.4 to 7.6 Bcf a day. Viets said that wide range leaves "a significant amount of flexibility," and that curtailments are coming in Northeast Appalachia. Asked by a Barclays analyst whether 2024's playbook of deferred wells could return, he answered "yes."

Betting on 2028 demand

Viets called 2027 "one of transition." He pointed to around 13 Bcf a day of new demand arriving by 2028, which he said "should lead to higher prices." Over four to six years he expects the Haynesville to need to grow by around 5 Bcf a day.

Chief Commercial Officer Marcel Teunissen said Expand is already about 55% hedged for 2027 at an average price he gave as 365, which he said protects the downside while leaving options on production. The hedge program paid more than $300 million in the third quarter, he said.

Expand produces natural gas, plus some oil and natural gas liquids, in the Haynesville, Marcellus and Utica shales, according to its annual report. Shares were down about 2% in Wednesday trading, with a market value near $21.9 billion.

Marketing arm and a new CEO

Danny Brown, who is in his third day as chief executive, told analysts he would stay open to acquisitions but be disciplined, and that any deal needs substantial synergies. Interim CEO Mike Wichterich introduced him.

Teunissen said the Twin Eagle acquisition closed September 16. Combined marketing profit is guided to $80 million in the fourth quarter, about 12 cents per Mcfe, and he said the company sees a path to $500 million by 2028.

Teunissen said cash breakeven including dividends is about $2.80 per Mcf and could fall toward 260 cents by 2028. Wichterich said net debt stood at $4.7 billion, with $305 million of buybacks in the third quarter.

Viets said Expand does not expect to close any material transactions in the fourth quarter, and the company will update the market when it reports again in February.