CF Industries Third-Quarter Earnings Rise To $436 Million As Volume And Pricing Lift EBITDA To $833 Million
The nitrogen producer held its Blue Point cost estimate at about $3.7 billion, with ammonia production expected to begin in 2029.
CF Industries, which makes ammonia and the nitrogen fertilizers derived from it, posted third-quarter net earnings to common stockholders of $436 million, or $2.87 per diluted share, up from $353 million, or $2.19, a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA, the company's preferred earnings gauge before interest, taxes and depreciation, climbed to $833 million from $667 million, according to a presentation filed with an 8-K on Wednesday.
Volume and price drive the gain
Net sales rose to $1,860 million from $1,659 million. Total net earnings, including the share belonging to minority holders, were $520 million, against $460 million a year earlier.
Of the $166 million rise in adjusted EBITDA, volume added $114 million and price $78 million. Lower realized gas cost contributed $20 million and business interruption insurance $62 million, while other items subtracted $108 million.
For the first nine months of 2026, net earnings to common stockholders were $1,778 million, or $11.60 per diluted share, versus $1,051 million, or $6.39, a year earlier. Nine-month adjusted EBITDA was $3,008 million, which includes a $170 million gain from a litigation settlement.
The diluted share count fell to 151.6 million from 161.2 million.
Blue Point stays at $3.7 billion
CF Industries sells ammonia, granular urea, UAN and other nitrogen products to cooperatives, retailers, distributors and industrial users. It expects about 9.5 million tons of gross ammonia production in 2026 and about $950 million of capital spending funded by CF, roughly $400 million of it tied to Blue Point.
The total cost of Blue Point, its low-carbon ammonia complex built with joint venture partners, remains about $3.7 billion. Construction has begun and ammonia production is expected to start in 2029. The Yazoo City complex is expected to resume operations in the first half of 2027.
The presentation targets mid-cycle EBITDA of about $3.3 billion around 2030, up from about $2.9 billion now, citing 45Q tax credits, a low-carbon price premium, Blue Point One and margin projects.
Cash returns and the buyback
Over the last twelve months, CF returned $1.3 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. About $1.1 billion remained under its $2 billion repurchase authorization as of September 30, and the authorization runs through 2029.
Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was $2.0 billion, a 53% conversion of adjusted EBITDA, or 61% excluding $306 million of deposits to Canada tied to a transfer pricing matter with the U.S. and Canadian tax authorities.
CF will host a conference call on November 5 to discuss the results and use the presentation.
CF's call on November 5 will use the same presentation, which puts mid-cycle EBITDA at about $2.9 billion today and about $3.3 billion around 2030.
