Ball CEO Says Cans Are 'Effectively Contracted' For 2027, Pushing Back On Price-Over-Volume Worry
Ron Lewis told analysts customers are asking for more capacity, not less, as Ball guided to modest fourth-quarter EPS growth.
Ball CEO Ron Lewis said on the company's third-quarter earnings call Tuesday that the can maker is "effectively contracted for 2027," answering a Truist analyst who raised the consumer-goods industry's shift toward price over volume. Ball, which makes aluminum beverage cans and other aluminum packaging, saw its shares fall about 6.5% to $63.64 in Tuesday trading.
'The exact opposite' of a pullback
The Truist analyst said one of the leading soft-drink companies had announced the shift about a month earlier, and asked whether any customer had clawed back 2027 commitments. Lewis said Ball is "effectively contracted for all of our volumes for next year across all of our geographies."
Pressed on whether anyone had pulled back, he replied: "I would say the exact opposite." Customers, he said, are making sure Ball has the capacity they expect to meet their 2027 growth goals.
Lewis said nothing significant is up for renewal and that customer signals point to 2027 volume growth in line with Ball's long-term 2% to 3% outlook. An RBC Capital Markets analyst asked whether inflation might lead customers to take contract minimums. Lewis said he does not see or hear "any hesitation," adding that the market has absorbed almost all industry excess capacity.
Seven quarters of growth, tight capacity
Lewis said Ball has grown volumes for seven quarters in a row. In North America, volumes rose 5% in 2025 against an expected 1% to 3%. This year the region is at the bottom of that range because Ball soaked up its excess capacity, he said, and the market is still growing 2% to 3%. He tied the new Millersburg plant to Ball being capacity constrained in North America.
Third-quarter global volumes rose 4.7%, comparable operating earnings rose 2.5% and comparable diluted earnings per share rose 6.8%, the company said. CFO Dan Rabbitt said Ball expects capital spending of $650 million in 2026 and free cash flow of about $900 million.
A $20 million gain that reverses
Rabbitt said the third quarter carried a metal-price timing gain of about $20 million, which he expects to reverse in the fourth quarter as metal prices fall. Millersburg start-up costs were about $10 million in the third quarter, with roughly $10 million more expected in the fourth and about $25 million for the year, down from the $35 million Ball had been calling out.
Lewis told analysts to expect strong fourth-quarter volume growth, modest earnings-per-share growth and delivery of the full-year goal of 10-plus percent comparable EPS growth.
On 2027 spending, Rabbitt said the budget is still being built, but capital spending should land from the midpoint to a little above depreciation and amortization. Asked about ready-to-drink cocktails, Lewis said the category is less than 5% of industry can volume but is gaining share.
Rabbitt said Ball is on track to repurchase at least $600 million of shares in 2026, within its pledge to return at least $800 million to shareholders.
Sources
- Ball: Q3 Earnings Snapshot — Associated Press
- Ball (BALL) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates — Yahoo Finance
- Ball: Q3 Earnings Snapshot – WTOP News — wtop.com
- Ball: Q3 Earnings Snapshot | 9news.com — Associated Press
- Ball: Q3 Earnings Snapshot | wfaa.com — Associated Press
