Ameren Locks In Delivery Options Beyond Its $38.1 Billion Plan As Electricity Demand Grows
Signed power contracts anchor the utility’s forecast, while more customers could extend earnings growth and require additional financing.
Ameren, whose utilities supply electricity and natural gas in Missouri and Illinois, has made long-lead commitments for generation resources beyond its $38.1 billion spending plan for 2027 through 2031. On Friday’s earnings call, Marty Lyons, Ameren’s chairman, president and chief executive officer, said the published forecast rests on signed electricity-service agreements, with additional contracts potentially supporting stronger earnings growth in the plan’s later years.
Signed Demand Anchors The Spending
The distinction is between preparing to deliver more power and putting that expansion into the financial forecast. Ameren’s five-year spending plan covers generation needed to serve 2.9 gigawatts of additional demand; commitments for some resources outside that plan preserve the company’s ability to deliver them within the same planning period, Lyons said.
“In fact, we have taken action,” Lyons said, describing commitments for equipment with lengthy delivery times. Additional electricity-service agreements would determine whether Ameren adds spending for those resources to its forecast.
The existing foundation is 2.8 gigawatts of signed agreements. Ameren expects demand under those contracts to begin increasing in 2027 and reach full capacity in 2030. Its financial plan assumes Missouri electricity sales grow at a compound annual rate of 12.9% from 2027 through 2031.
Google and Amazon give that forecast a concrete customer base. Michael Mayne, group president of Ameren Utilities, said the companies announced Missouri projects in the second quarter with combined planned investment of $25 billion. Those projects fall within the electricity-service agreements Ameren signed earlier this year, and construction is underway.
Ameren is a St. Louis-based utility holding company whose rates are set by regulators. Missouri electric service accounted for 52% of its 2025 operating revenue, while Illinois electricity-distribution delivery service contributed 26%. The expansion therefore reaches directly into the business that supplies the largest share of its revenue.
More Contracts Could Extend Earnings Growth
Ameren expects compound annual earnings-per-share growth of 8% to 10% from 2027 through 2031, using its 2027 guidance midpoint of $5.80 as the base. Management expects annual growth near the upper end of that range in 2028 and 2029, when electricity sales to the new customers are expected to increase rapidly.
For 2026, the company raised its forecast to $5.35 to $5.55 per share, compared with $5.25 to $5.45 previously. Its 2027 forecast is $5.70 to $5.90; management’s stated 8.4% midpoint growth comparison uses the original 2026 guidance midpoint, rather than the revised forecast.
The prospective demand extends beyond the signed service contracts: 1.2 gigawatts is covered by construction agreements, and another 4.4 gigawatts comes from projects with completed interconnection studies. Lyons said about 600 megawatts advanced from completed studies to construction agreements during the quarter.
Lyons expects additional service agreements in 2027. Answering a Truist analyst, he described their potential effect as “really strengthening the EPS growth rate in the outer years of this five-year plan and lengthening the period of this strong growth.”
The broader resource roadmap is designed to serve 3.4 gigawatts of additional demand by 2031 and 5 gigawatts by 2036. Ameren’s investment opportunities through 2036 exceed $90 billion, an increase of $19 billion primarily tied to generation needed for the roadmap’s demand assumptions. That opportunity set is broader than the spending already incorporated into its financial forecast.
An 80% Capacity Expansion To Execute
A Jefferies analyst questioned whether Ameren could manage the construction workload, particularly if additional customer agreements require still more generation. The planned additions for 2027 through 2031 total approximately 7.7 gigawatts and would increase Ameren Missouri’s installed generating capacity by approximately 80%, Mayne said.
Mayne’s answer centered on repeatable designs, early equipment orders and construction partners working across projects. He described the renewable-energy and battery program as “really a rinse and repeat sort of program,” with standardization intended to simplify design, construction and subsequent operations.
Ameren has announced 5.3 gigawatts of generation projects. Approximately 2.3 gigawatts of gas, solar and storage resources have regulatory approval and are under construction, with service expected to begin in 2027 and 2028. The 2.1-gigawatt West Alton facility is expected to enter service in 2031.
Execution risk also sits with the customers. Lyons said construction delays at their sites could affect the sales and earnings growth Ameren expects in 2027 or 2028. The company’s stronger growth forecast depends on both delivering power and customers being ready to consume it.
New Shares Fund Part Of The Build
Lenny Singh, Ameren’s executive vice president and chief financial officer, said the $38.1 billion capital plan is more than 20% larger than the plan issued last year. Management expects it to produce 13.3% compound annual growth in rate base—the infrastructure value used to set regulated returns—from 2026 through 2031.
That infrastructure growth exceeds the projected earnings-per-share growth. Responding to a Wells Fargo analyst, Lyons said dilution from issuing new shares is the primary reason for the gap.
Ameren expects approximately $5 billion of equity issuance from 2027 through 2031. It has already sold forward approximately $1.7 billion of common stock toward those needs, with issuance expected to be concentrated primarily near the end of 2027 and 2028. Operating cash flow remains the main funding source, and long-term debt will cover remaining cash requirements.
Customer deposits could provide another funding route for additional growth. Mayne said such arrangements are being considered, including whether they could help the balance sheet while protecting stakeholders.
Customer cost allocation is part of the expansion’s economics. Lyons said Missouri Senate Bill 4 requires large-demand customers to pay the power and infrastructure costs their operations create. Once operational, those customers would also contribute toward the grid’s fixed costs.
Additional contracts could extend Ameren’s faster earnings growth into the later years of its plan. Delivering that growth requires matching customer construction schedules with new generation—and financing the infrastructure without letting share issuance absorb too much of the earnings increase.
Sources
- Ameren Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y — Yahoo Finance
- Earnings Beat Might Change The Case For Investing In Ameren Stock (AEE) — Yahoo Finance
- Ameren Non-GAAP EPS of $2.42 beats by $0.13, revenue of $2.88B beats by $50M (AEE:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- Ameren (AEE) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates — Yahoo Finance
- Ameren: Q3 Earnings Snapshot – WTOP News — wtop.com
