WEC Energy Lifts Capital Plan $10 Billion To $47.5 Billion — CEO Says The 'Plus' In Growth Target Is About 2028 And 2029
WEC's CEO pointed to 2028 and 2029 as the likeliest years for faster earnings growth, if regulators approve projects sooner than expected.
WEC Energy Group, the Milwaukee utility holding company, raised its five-year capital plan by $10 billion to $47.5 billion for 2027 through 2031, and CEO Scott Lauber told analysts on the company's third-quarter earnings call Thursday that the "plus" in its new 7-to-9-plus percent earnings growth target is most representative of 2028 and 2029.
What the plus depends on
The target is annual earnings-per-share growth of 7 to 9 plus percent from 2027 to 2031, measured from $5.56, the midpoint of the original 2026 guidance range. Pressed by a Wells Fargo analyst on what the plus assumes, Lauber said many projects need regulatory approval, and moving faster than expected could make growth "a little faster in a couple years, maybe like in 28 or 29."
A Barclays analyst asked whether the plus lands in 2029 and beyond. Lauber said it depends on approvals, "potentially 28, more likely 29," and that the plan's spending dips in 2030 and 2031, which he said not to read too much into because 2032 brings more opportunities. He said he felt most confident in 2028 and 2029, but "30 and 31 aren't that far off."
Asked whether the plus covers the five-year rate, Lauber said it is "more representative of the 28 to 29," while he felt comfortable at the upper end of 9% over five years, assuming no wildcards. On whether the plus lasts one or two years, he said it was too early to tell, with another capital plan update in a year or perhaps an interim one as more customers sign.
A $10 billion data-center-driven plan
WEC, which provides regulated electricity and natural gas in Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula and holds about 60% of transmission company ATC, expects electric demand to grow 4.9 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, 1 gigawatt more than the prior plan. The plan supports asset-base growth at a 13.4% compound annual rate.
Lauber put about $8 billion-plus of the $10 billion increase on very large customers such as Microsoft and Oracle's Vantage site. Chief Financial Officer Xia Liu said about 45% of the full $47.5 billion is tied to them. The plan adds $6.8 billion for natural gas generation, and ATC investment rises $1.2 billion to about $5.3 billion.
Liu said common equity needs stay roughly flat despite the larger plan, because very large customers are paying more cash returns during construction. She said each incremental capital dollar should carry about 40% equity, down from 50 cents.
Quarter, guidance and dividend
WEC reported third-quarter earnings of $1.18 per share, against 83 cents a year earlier, and raised and narrowed 2026 guidance to $5.60 to $5.64 from $5.51 to $5.61.
Lauber said he expects to give 2027 dividend plans and earnings guidance in December, with dividend growth of 6.5% to 7%. Management will discuss the plan at the EEI conference.
Wisconsin regulators are expected to issue final rate orders by the end of the year, and Illinois regulators are expected to decide Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas rates in December.
Sources
- WEC Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Demand, Revenues Rise Y/Y — Yahoo Finance
- WEC Energy GAAP EPS of $1.18 beats by $0.20, revenue of $2.29B beats by $90M (WEC:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- WEC Energy Group (WEC) Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates — Yahoo Finance
- WEC Energy: Q3 Earnings Snapshot – WTOP News — wtop.com
- PWR Stock: These Energy Players Get A Jolt After Earnings Beats | Investor's Business Daily — investors.com
