United's Kirby: Starlink 'Probably Isn't Enough On Its Own' To Hit 2027 Margin Goal
The CEO said United needs fuel, capacity or pricing to help, and predicted other airlines will be pushed to trim flying.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said on the company's third-quarter earnings call that Starlink Wi-Fi "probably isn't enough on its own" to deliver double-digit pre-tax margins in 2027. He also predicted that other airlines will be forced to cut capacity.
What Kirby said about 2027
Kirby said United is planning for fuel to stay elevated through all of 2027, and that industry capacity appears set to accelerate. Either could change, he said, "but we're not counting on it."
He expects a meaningful revenue-per-seat-mile tailwind from Starlink, but said United probably also needs at least one of three things: lower fuel, lower industry capacity, or the industry continuing to trade load factor for yield.
About half of United departures are on Starlink-equipped aircraft, Kirby said. The company expects 61% by the end of 2026, 87% by June 1, and the full fleet by the end of 2027. He also said "some big new ideas we haven't even announced yet" are coming "in the not-too-distant future."
The pushback, and the prediction
An analyst from Melius Research said it "feels like tweaks in supply don't get you there anymore." Kirby said he doesn't think Starlink will move customers fast enough in 2027 to reach double digits without "some other structural macro changes."
On capacity, he said he thinks jet fuel stays high through next year and that "this is more a question of when than if" airlines change their plans. He pointed to activist investors as the kind of event that "changes your mind in a hurry."
Kirby said Spirit's exit gave some airlines a reprieve from hard decisions, but "there's other airlines that are next up on the firing line."
The guidance and costs behind it
CFO Mike Leskinen guided fourth-quarter earnings per share to between $0.50 and $1.50, assuming fuel of about $4.80 a gallon, as Reuters reported. He said fuel recapture in the quarter should be similar to the third quarter's 72%.
For 2027, Leskinen said United will keep targeting 2% to 3% growth in unit costs excluding fuel, despite rising distribution costs and airport costs he said are up 60% since the pandemic. In the third quarter, United reported earnings per share of $2.54 and a pre-tax margin of 6.2%.
Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella said third-quarter revenue rose 17.4% year over year to $17.9 billion.
What to watch
Watch whether rivals trim 2027 capacity plans as Kirby predicts, and what the new ideas he previewed turn out to be.
Kirby put the goal plainly on the call: United is aiming for double-digit pre-tax margins in 2027, and by his own account it needs help beyond Starlink to get there.
Sources
- United Airlines (UAL) 3Q 2026 earnings — CNBC
- United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby: Stress from higher oil prices is increasing — CNBC
- United Airlines Forecasts Fourth-Quarter Profit Below Estimates as Fuel Costs Bite — Reuters
- United Delivers Record 17% Revenue Growth in Q3, and Expects Record Q4 Revenue Growth, Underpinned by Accelerating Customer Investments – Company Announcement - FT.com — Financial Times
- United Airlines misses Q3 estimates as fuel costs weigh on profitability (UAL:NASDAQ) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
