TransUnion CEO Says VantageScore Adoption Is Beating Even His Own Forecasts, Even As FICO Pushes Back
Chris Cartwright put VantageScore in roughly 35% of third-quarter mortgage credit pulls and extended 99-cent pricing through 2028.
TransUnion, which turns consumer data into credit, fraud and identity products, said VantageScore appeared in roughly 35% of mortgage credit pulls in the third quarter, CEO Chris Cartwright said on the company's earnings call Tuesday. He said adoption has run ahead of what even TransUnion expected, and that FICO's new preferred program may slow the shift but won't stop it.
Answering FICO's new program
Asked by an analyst at Autonomous Research about FICO Preferred, Cartwright said TransUnion read about the program in a press release late last week and is still working with FICO to turn it into contract terms and operating requirements. He added that it is only one piece of how FICO plans to make money on its score in 2027. The other pieces, not yet public, are being worked out confidentially with TransUnion, the other bureaus, resellers and some lenders.
Cartwright said he expects efforts to slow migration by changing how scores are monetized. Even so, he said, such moves "won't stop the overall movement of the market" to a score that he said performs better than the incumbent and costs 90% less.
99-cent pricing through 2028
TransUnion extended its 99-cent VantageScore mortgage pricing through 2028, which Cartwright said is more than 90% below the price of the legacy score. He said the company will also offer free credit reports during lenders' analysis and evaluation phase, and expects adoption to keep rising as the unified loan-pricing grid removes another source of friction.
Cartwright also said the industry changed pricing structures at the end of last year and has "essentially decoupled" TransUnion's revenue from the FICO score. TransUnion charges for data, he said, and FICO can charge what it wants for the score. The company also introduced First Look, which lets lenders see credit report insights before buying additional scores.
Quarter and tri-merge exposure
TransUnion said it beat the high end of its guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share, with adjusted EPS of $1.25, up 14%. Organic constant-currency revenue grew 8%, or about 5.5% excluding FICO mortgage royalties. The company raised the low end of its full-year outlook and now expects adjusted EPS of $4.81 to $4.88.
Cartwright also addressed a possible regulatory move by the Federal Housing Finance Agency to a buy-merge standard, which would mean buying two credit files instead of three. He said that if all FHFA-regulated loans moved over and the bureaus kept equal share, the annual hit would be roughly $33 million in revenue and $0.15 of adjusted EPS, under 1% of revenue and under 3% of EPS.
It was also CFO Todd Cello's last earnings call in that role. Cartwright said Cello will stay through year-end and serve as an advisor through March 1st while a search for a successor proceeds.
The details of FICO's other 2027 pricing plans are still being negotiated with TransUnion, the other bureaus and their customers, Cartwright said, with "more news to come."
Sources
- TransUnion Non-GAAP EPS of $1.25 beats by $0.04, revenue of $1.31B in-line;gives Q4 and FY — seekingalpha.com
- TransUnion (TRU) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates — Yahoo Finance
- TransUnion: Q3 Earnings Snapshot — Associated Press
- TransUnion raises quarterly dividend by 8% to $0.135/share, expands buyback program to $2B — seekingalpha.com
- TransUnion Announces Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results — globenewswire.com
