Pfizer CEO Says Wall Street Is Wrong On Alrexvio: $600 Million For Pfizer, $5 Billion For A Rival
Albert Bourla told analysts the Street's long-range numbers diverge from Pfizer's own and expects them to adjust after the election.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said on the drugmaker's third-quarter earnings call Tuesday that analysts' long-range forecasts diverge from the company's own, and that he expects the Street to adjust "post-election." His example: for the multiple myeloma drug Alrexvio, "for a competing product the street is forecasting five billions and for us 600 millions."
Two products, two gaps
A Goldman Sachs analyst asked which assumptions the Street is mismodeling against Pfizer's aim of high single-digit revenue growth. Chief Financial Officer Cécile Guégant said the gap does not sit in one product, naming obesity and some oncology drugs, and said growth does not rest on any single product or therapeutic area.
Bourla then added his own examples. He said the company has rechecked its assumptions repeatedly and still expects high single-digit growth from 2028 to 2033. On Nurtec, the migraine drug, he said Pfizer is already close to $2 billion by his analysis while the Street has it at almost $2.5 billion by 2030, and said "there is a discrepancy there." The transcript of that remark is garbled, so the Nurtec figures are the least certain of his points.
On Alrexvio, he said Pfizer aspires to a profile with similar efficacy and better tolerability than the competitor. That is "remains to be proven," he said, but "I don't think the 600 million will be 5 billion."
Thin coverage of the pipeline
Bourla said many analysts do not cover the pipeline, so for some products only five of the 12 to 13 analysts forming the 2031 outlook carry an estimate. He added that big gaps also exist for products already launched.
Pfizer, which makes prescription medicines and vaccines including Eliquis, Ibrance and Comirnaty, has put close to $80 billion into deals in recent years, Bourla said. About 80% went to Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven. Chief Scientific Officer Chris Boshoff said Alrexvio's MM5 data are expected at a medical meeting before year end.
Guidance raised, 2027 outlook due
Guégant said Pfizer is raising full-year revenue guidance by $1.5 billion at the midpoint to a range of $62 billion to $64 billion. It also raised and narrowed adjusted earnings per share guidance to $2.95 to $3.05, up 10 cents at the midpoint after absorbing a 10-cent hit from the Innovent deal. Third-quarter revenue was $16.6 billion, and launched and acquired products grew 32% operationally, while Nurtec grew 33%.
Guégant said Pfizer will issue 2027 guidance around mid-December. She cited loss of exclusivity on Eliquis internationally at the end of 2026, along with U.S. price changes, as drivers to reflect.
Bourla's own forecast for Pfizer's convergence with the Street is post-election, with 2027 guidance due around mid-December.
Sources
- Pfizer (PFE) earnings Q3 2026 — CNBC
- Pfizer flat in Q3 despite 32% growth for new and acquired products - BioSpace — biospace.com
- Pfizer hikes 2026 outlook: names new CFO (PFE:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- Pfizer (PFE) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say — Yahoo Finance
- Pfizer: Q3 Earnings Snapshot | 9news.com — Associated Press
