Petrobras May Extend Fuel-Pricing Deadline As Gasoline Remains Under Review
Management expects diesel to meet its policy by year-end, while higher production supports a larger spending forecast.
Petrobras, which produces oil and refines fuels, is considering more time to meet its fuel-pricing limits, Logistics, Commercialization and Markets Director Angelica Laureano said on Wednesday's earnings call. Management expects diesel to comply by year-end, but gasoline remains under review.
Gasoline Complicates The Pricing Limits
“There are still questions about gasoline prices,” Laureano said. One option remains open: “we might extend the deadline to be able to meet the policy established limits”.
An analyst asked management to confirm whether average prices for the year fall inside the prescribed range. Laureano said judging compliance would be premature with the year still unfinished. She described the discussions as a possible adjustment for current circumstances, with no structural overhaul of the policy expected.
The pricing range rests on customers' alternative fuel costs and Petrobras' own best alternatives, including production, imports and market opportunities. Management said the strategy aims to preserve competitiveness and generate value without passing every market swing through to customers.
Laureano said federal fuel subsidies have helped contain prices for customers. Pricing is monitored daily by the commercial management team, weekly by the board and quarterly by the management board.
The Cost Of Losing Fuel Sales
Petrobras President Magda Chambriard said experience from last year explains management's caution. Trying to follow customers' alternative costs closely left Petrobras with less money and a smaller market share, she said.
Lost sales can give competitors room to develop logistics networks that strengthen their position permanently, Chambriard argued. Management therefore weighs the effect of pricing across the company's fuel business, including gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel.
Gasoline has another source of competition: ethanol. Chambriard cited ethanol at 32% of the gasoline mix and said a 35% blend is being discussed.
The president framed the objective in terms of revenue across Petrobras, rather than sales of any individual fuel. “What we want is to improve the Petrobras' system's revenues,” she said.
More Oil, More Spending
CFO and Investor Relations Director Fernando Melgarejo presented a higher 2026 capital-spending forecast of $21 billion–$22 billion, against $16 billion–$17.4 billion previously. He attributed the increase chiefly to currency effects and faster construction of Petrobras' own production platforms for the Búzios, Atapu and Sepia fields.
Currency movements account for more than $1 billion of the increase, Melgarejo said. Petrobras invested $16.8 billion in the first nine months, including $6.4 billion in the third quarter; exploration and production absorbed 84% of that spending.
The company now expects average oil production of 2.7 million–2.8 million barrels a day in 2026, up from 2.5 million. Melgarejo credited efficiency improvements, better reservoir management, fewer shutdown losses, expanded platform capacity and earlier production from P79.
The forecast also incorporates scheduled fourth-quarter maintenance and approximately 85,000 barrels a day to be shared with the federal government at Búzios under the field's contractual arrangements.
Petrobras raised its operating cash-flow outlook to $45 billion–$50 billion from $35 billion. Melgarejo attributed that revision to greater oil and refined-product output and higher Brent prices.
The spending ambitions build on an earlier 2026–2030 plan with a $109 billion budget. Management plans to present its next strategic plan later this month, including an updated investment outlook.
Higher output has already changed Petrobras' spending and cash-generation forecasts. Gasoline's timetable for meeting the pricing limits remains a management decision under discussion.
Sources
- Petrobras Q3 Profit Rises 22% as Oil Production Hits New Record | OilPrice.com — oilprice.com
- Petrobras mejora sus ganancias en el tercer trimestre con una producción récord — france24.com
- Petrobras Results Disappoint | Rigzone — rigzone.com
- Petrobras Results Disappoint | Rigzone — rigzone.com
- Ibovespa Sobe com Resultados Corporativos — pt.tradingeconomics.com
