Earnings

Freeport Trims Copper Sales Outlook, Lifts 2027 Capital Budget To $5.2 Billion

CEO Kathleen Quirk says an "underinvested" industry needs "bigger and bolder" thinking, even as the miner cuts 2026 and 2027 copper sales.

Freeport-McMoRan, the Phoenix-based copper, gold and molybdenum miner, cut its 2026 and 2027 copper sales outlook and raised 2027 capital spending to $5.2 billion, Chief Financial Officer Maree Robertson said on the company's third-quarter earnings call Tuesday. Chief Executive Kathleen Quirk defended the larger outlay, saying the industry has been underinvested while demand surges.

Lower sales, bigger budget

Robertson said 2026 copper sales were trimmed by about 2%, reflecting slightly lower production in the U.S. and Chile, and 2027 by approximately 2.5% to reflect mine plan updates. Sales for 2028 are consistent with prior estimates, and gold and molybdenum sales are unchanged across the three years.

The 2027 capital budget of $5.2 billion is about $400 million above the July estimate, she said, mainly for mining equipment to support U.S. productivity and for cost inflation. The 2026 estimate is about $4.4 billion, a 2% increase from the prior one.

Asked by a Scotiabank analyst whether the jump was inflation or new projects, Quirk said about half came from added mining equipment, such as ultra-class trucks that have worked well at Cerro Verde in Peru. The rest is inflation and added costs to finish the Atlantic Copper project in 2027.

"Bigger and bolder"

Quirk said "this industry, historically in recent years, arguably has been underinvested," and that "we've got to be thinking bigger and bolder." She added: "That doesn't mean we're not going to control spend."

The company still expects growth from about 3 billion pounds of copper this year to 3.7 billion in 2027 and over 4 billion in 2028, which Quirk said requires no new capital. Robertson said fourth-quarter copper sales should rise 17% from the third quarter, with 2027 copper sales up over 20%.

Costs and price leverage

Higher energy costs, particularly diesel, have added roughly $500 million versus 2025, Robertson said, and sulfuric acid has more than doubled this year. She said Freeport is largely insulated because it both makes and consumes acid.

Each 10-cent-per-pound move in copper changes annual EBITDA by about $390 million in 2027-2028, she said. Modeled EBITDA runs from over $12 billion a year at $5 copper to $19.5 billion at $7. Freeport's market value was $93.6 billion in Tuesday trading.

Baghdad decision looms

The board is expected to decide in the fourth quarter on a Baghdad expansion in Arizona, which Quirk put at about $4.5 billion, with nothing for it in 2027 capital spending. She said it would take about three and a half years from a final decision and add 200 to 250 million pounds of copper a year.

Quirk said the company holds the permits it needs, and the Baghdad vote is due before year-end.