Expedia Guides Fourth-Quarter Bookings Growth To 3.3% To 5.2%, Down From 11% — Election, Middle East, Sale Timing Cited
The online travel company raised its full-year outlook even as its CFO laid out why the holiday quarter will grow more slowly than the third.
Expedia Group, the online travel marketplace behind Expedia, Hotels.com and Vrbo, expects fourth-quarter gross bookings of $27.9 billion to $28.4 billion, growth of about 3.3% to 5.2%, after bookings grew 11% in the third quarter, CFO Derek Andersen said on the company's earnings call Wednesday. The company still raised its full-year guidance.
Four reasons for the slowdown
Andersen called the guidance a moderation from a stronger-than-expected third quarter. He pointed first to a softer start to the quarter: the U.S. election cycle is hurting demand roughly as much as in prior election cycles, he said, and Middle East and European events are disrupting demand in those regions and on the long-haul routes through them.
Second, Expedia is beginning to lap heavy promotional activity from some of its largest B2B partners, which ramped in the prior year's fourth quarter. Andersen said B2B fundamentals remain strong, but growth there is moderating.
Third, the fall sale. CEO Ariane Gorin, answering a B. Riley analyst, said this year's sale was moved up a few weeks versus last year, so more of it landed in the fourth quarter last year. Andersen said the shift pulled demand into the third quarter.
For the fourth quarter, Expedia guided revenue to $3.69 billion to $3.75 billion, growth of about 4% to 5.7%, and adjusted EBITDA to $830 million to $880 million, a margin of 22.5% to 23.5%. Andersen said slower revenue growth and investments, including costs from recent acquisitions, weigh on that margin.
A higher bar for the full year
Expedia now expects full-year gross bookings of $131.4 billion to $131.9 billion, growth of about 10%, and revenue of $16.37 billion to $16.43 billion. It expects adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of roughly 180 to 200 basis points, meaning 1.8 to 2 percentage points. Andersen said that would top the high end of each range set at the start of the year for bookings, revenue and margin expansion.
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $1.7 billion, a 34.2% margin. Expedia bought back about 2 million shares for $576 million in the quarter, bringing buybacks for the year to date to about $1.5 billion.
After the call, Expedia shares fell, a Seeking Alpha report said, tying the decline to the fourth-quarter outlook and AI disruption concerns.
B2B and AI questions on the call
B2B bookings grew 19% in the third quarter, Gorin said, with double-digit growth in every region. Andersen said near-term B2B margins face a little pressure from partner mix and from investments in what Expedia calls its one-stop travel shop.
Analysts pressed on AI. Gorin said traffic from AI agents is still small but high intent, and that agentic AI's strength is in discovery while people still want to book with a trusted brand. Pressed by an analyst for more detail on B2B growth by partner, she said the company will look at what it discloses in future quarters.
Expedia reports fourth-quarter results against that $27.9 billion to $28.4 billion bookings range.
Sources
- Expedia slides as Q3 beat overshadowed by Q4 sales outlook, AI disruption (EXPE:NASDAQ) — seekingalpha.com
- Expedia's Q3 Earnings Ahead: What's in Store for the Stock? — Yahoo Finance
- Expedia Earnings Beat. But Stock Falls After Post-Midterms Rally | Investor's Business Daily — investors.com
- Online Travel Firm Expedia Raises Annual Forecasts on Resilient Demand — Reuters
- 5 Key Earnings Charts to Watch This Week — Yahoo Finance
