CME's Duffy Shelves 24-7 Oil Contract, Keeps Perpetuals Open And Says Single Stock Futures Start Without Prediction Markets
On the third-quarter call, Duffy tied 24-7 trading to bank infrastructure and left perpetual futures pending the CFTC lawsuit.
CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy said on the company's third-quarter earnings call Wednesday that CME will hold off listing its 24-7 small oil contract and will not decide on perpetual futures until its court fight with the CFTC is resolved. The call also carried a record quarter: average daily volume of 29.4 million contracts, up 16% from a year earlier, which Duffy called the highest for a third quarter in CME's history.
The quarter underneath the argument
CFO Lynne Fitzpatrick said revenue of $1.7 billion was up 13% from the third quarter of 2025. Market data hit a record $243 million, up 20%. Adjusted earnings per share were $3.02, up 13%.
The company returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders in the quarter: $465 million in regular dividends and $524 million in buybacks. Fitzpatrick said fourth-quarter volume is running 17% above last year's record fourth quarter.
Single stock futures have traded a little over 350,000 contracts since launch, about $3.5 billion of notional, a CME executive told analysts.
24-7 oil is shelved, and Duffy points at overseas trading
Asked by a Piper Sandler analyst about the withdrawn 24-7 small oil filing, Duffy said commercial participants did not want to staff up another desk. "For now we heed the advice of the commercial participants and we will hold off on listing that contract until people are more comfortable," he said.
He then turned on regulators. He said he is "very surprised" that U.S. participants trade on overseas markets through VPNs with no evidence of policing, and asked what the agency is doing to make sure they follow U.S. law.
Duffy said he believes markets will ultimately go 24-7 on all products, but the banking system has to support it first. The U.S. equity market alone is $76 trillion, he said, and "Nobody can pre-fund that on a Friday."
Perpetuals and prediction markets
A Bank of America analyst asked whether CME would list perpetuals if it wins the CFTC lawsuit. Duffy said the funding rate on a perpetual is deemed a swap and that CME is "fairly confident" in its position, but "we'll cross that bridge when we get to it and not until." He said CME will abide by whatever the court decides.
CME's lawyer on the call said a motion to dismiss has been filed and opposed, and the case is expected to be fully briefed to the judge in December.
On single stock futures, Duffy rejected the idea that every market needs a prediction market. He did not rule one out later, but said "This contract will go forward without predictions to start with, for sure." Pressed by a Deutsche Bank analyst on leverage caps for perpetuals, he said he will not change his view until he sees a proposal in writing.
What to watch
The CFTC's extended comment period on compute futures ends, Duffy said, around November 9. After that the agency must decide what to do, and he called its timing unknown. CME's securities clearing launch is on track for December 7.
Duffy's own sign-off to one long exchange with analysts: \"I don't duck any questions.\"
Sources
- CME Group stock slips as Q3 earnings beat, but expenses disappoint (CME:NASDAQ) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- CME Group 3Q Profit, Revenue Rise on Higher Derivatives Volume — MarketWatch
- CME Group Inc. Reports Highest Q3 Revenue on Record for Q3 2026 | CME Group Inc. — investor.cmegroup.com
- What Is CME Group (CME) Expanding With Tungsten And New Crypto Futures? — Yahoo Finance
- CME Group (CME): Can Market Data Make Earnings Less Dependent on Trading Surges? — Yahoo Finance
