Boeing Targets $10 Billion In Free Cash Flow By 2029, With Just $2 Billion Due This Year
CEO Kelly Ortberg laid out a path of $2 billion, $3 billion, $6 billion and $10 billion, and said the range of outcomes is narrowing.
Boeing expects about $2 billion of free cash flow in 2026, rising to about $3 billion in 2027, about $6 billion in 2028 and "the $10 billion target in 2029," CEO Kelly Ortberg said on the company's third-quarter earnings call Tuesday. Boeing shares fell 9.54% to $170.35 in Tuesday trading, from a prior close of $188.31.
The cash path, year by year
Boeing, which builds commercial jets, defense systems and satellites and services them after sale, said it has narrowed its 2026 range. Ortberg said the 2027 figure already includes extra capital spending to support development of the Navy's new fighter, the F/A-XX.
CFO Jay Malave said the targets assume the 777X is certified by mid-year 2027. He said 2027 gets a lift from the absence of a roughly $700 million Justice Department settlement payment made in 2026, higher commercial deliveries and better cash margins on the 737 and 787. Those gains are partly offset by lower customer deposits on commercial orders, which he sized at a few billion dollars, and about $1 billion more capital spending, to roughly $5 billion.
Capital spending would run around $4 billion in each of 2028 and 2029, Malave said, and he expects it to settle at 3% to 4% of revenue over time. He said the cash plan is underwritten by a record $745 billion backlog, $612 billion of it in commercial airplanes.
A slower road to 52 a month
Ortberg said the 737 is taking longer than expected to show stable output at 47 a month, and he expects that to run into next year. The financial plan now targets 52 a month in the back half of 2027. Wings are the cause of the instability, he said, because some process fixes failed to deliver the flow gains expected.
Malave said the delay means 737 deliveries will come in shy of the 500 target this year. Asked whether the profile had steepened, Ortberg told a Citi analyst it was "almost like from expectations, more of a one year shift to the right," adding that he sees no change in the slope or the endpoint.
Third-quarter revenue was $24.2 billion, up 4%, with free cash flow of $464 million positive.
Why Boeing is willing to commit now
Ortberg said two years ago every fixed-price development program was challenged and the company was coming out of a strike, producing nothing in its commercial factories. He said the company has since reduced risk enough to give an outlook it can meet, while stressing that outcomes still hinge on the production ramp and certification timing.
On defense, he said growth should now run at the middle single digits or higher, up from the low single digits the company had been thinking about.
Malave said Boeing expects to give more assumptions behind the cash plan, and will detail deliveries by program in January.
Malave said Boeing will give delivery detail by program in January.
Sources
- Boeing (BA) Q3 2026 earnings — CNBC
- Boeing Posts $116 Million Loss as Revenue Rises - WSJ — The Wall Street Journal
- Boeing narrows third-quarter loss as defense sales rise, but focus remains on 737 Max production — CNBC
- Boeing's Q3 revenue, earnings miss estimates amid narrower losses (BA:NYSE) — seekingalpha.com
- Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg: The uncertainty in our financial performance is narrowing — CNBC
