Axsome Says Alzheimer's Agitation Launch Is Working, Won't Guide Fourth Quarter After Stock Slide
Executives cited prescription growth when pressed on a 40% to 45% stock drop since launch, and said Auvelity could reach $8 billion in peak sales.
Axsome Therapeutics executives defended the Alzheimer's agitation launch of the depression drug Auvelity on the company's third-quarter earnings call Monday, after a UBS analyst said the stock was down 40% to 45% since the launch began, and total revenue reached $259.7 million, up 52% from a year earlier.
Pressed on fourth-quarter estimates
The UBS analyst said the launch had met Axsome's internal expectations but not investors', then asked whether fourth-quarter and 2027 consensus needed to come down. The answer came under a speaker tag the transcript labels Wells Fargo analyst, apparently a transcription error: the company does not give specific guidance for the fourth quarter or 2027.
The response pointed to growth in new-to-brand prescriptions for Auvelity of 26% sequentially in the second quarter and 21% in the third, which it expects to turn into refills. Auvelity net product sales were $207.6 million in the third quarter.
Chief Commercial Officer Ari Maizel, asked about the fourth quarter, called it premature to say, noting two months remained. "We are feeling very good about the overall business trends and look forward to closing out the year on a high note," Maizel said.
Prescription numbers behind the defense
Maizel said monthly prescriptions for patients 65 and older, the group that mostly reflects the Alzheimer's agitation use, rose from about 8,300 before approval to about 14,800 in September 2026, which he described as 78% growth since approval. New-to-brand prescriptions in that group grew 211% from a year earlier and 99% from the prior quarter.
Axsome activated about 8,200 new Auvelity prescribers in the quarter, 49% more than the prior quarter, bringing the total since launch to about 77,000. Maizel said Auvelity is positioned to generate at least $8 billion in annual revenue at peak.
On the market itself, Maizel said it is "still a new and developing market with little precedent." He said the company can see samples given to doctors but does not have precise data on whether they reach patients. Asked to compare the launch with a rival Alzheimer's agitation drug, Chief Operating Officer Mark Jacobson said the company does not typically comment on products that are not its own.
Three drugs, narrowing loss
Axsome, a biopharmaceutical company that sells medicines for central nervous system conditions, also sells Sunosi and Symbravo. The net loss narrowed to $12.9 million, or 25 cents a share, from $47.2 million a year earlier, and included $26.4 million of stock-based compensation. Cash was about $314 million.
Next on the calendar: the FDA's target action date of May 1, 2027 for AXS-12 in cataplexy, and top-line results from the binge eating disorder trial in the first quarter of 2027.
Dr. Herriot Tabuteau, the chief executive, closed the call saying Axsome is positioned to "close the year strong and enter 2027 with significant momentum."
Sources
- Axsome Therapeutics GAAP EPS of -$0.25 beats by $0.38, revenue of $259.7M beats by $10.51M (AXSM:NASDAQ) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- Axsome: Q3 Earnings Snapshot – WTOP News — wtop.com
- Axsome Therapeutics Q3 2026 Earnings Preview (AXSM:NASDAQ) | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com
- Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance
