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# National Fuel Gas Expects Lower Adjusted Earnings In 2027 As It Plans Production Split
- URL: https://www.bullished.co/national-fuel-gas-expects-lower-adjusted-earnings-in-2027-as-it-plans-production-split-7247b762/
- Published: 2026-11-06T22:51:40.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-06T22:51:40.000Z
- Description: The preliminary outlook includes a full year of gas production, while the Ohio utility purchase is expected to lift regulated earnings.
- Author: Matteo Parrino
- Tags: Earnings, NFG, Industry: Utilities

National Fuel Gas, which produces and delivers natural gas, expects fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings of [$6.00 to $6.40](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000070145/000007014526000037/nfg-20261104.htm?ref=bullished.co) per share, below fiscal 2026’s $7.55\. The preliminary outlook accompanied results released Wednesday and included in Thursday’s SEC filing, and counts a full year of the production and gathering business slated for separation.

## Gas prices shape the outlook

The forecast assumes benchmark natural gas at [$2.85 per million](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/national-fuel-gas-co-nfg-231431248.html?ref=bullished.co) British thermal units. National Fuel’s sensitivity estimates put adjusted earnings at $5.60–$6.00 per share with gas at $2.50, or $6.85–$7.25 with gas at $3.50.

Annual adjusted earnings [rose 9%](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000070145/000007014526000037/nfg-9302026xexhibit99x8k.htm?ref=bullished.co), from $6.91 per share. Earnings under standard accounting reached $7.02 per share versus $5.68\. Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow totaled $1,272 million, with $199 million of free cash flow—its measure of cash left after net investing outflows, adjusted for acquisitions and divestitures.

The fourth quarter was weaker: unaudited profit fell to [$97.5 million](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/04/3395913/0/en/national-fuel-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-fiscal-2026-earnings.html?ref=bullished.co), or $1.02 per share, from $107.3 million, or $1.18\. Adjusted earnings per share held at $1.22\. Corporate and other operations lost $29.1 million, largely from Ohio acquisition and financing expenses and separation costs.

Production declined 7% to 104 billion cubic feet as declining output from existing wells outweighed new wells. Hedging helped realized prices, after transportation costs, rise 7% to $2.80 per thousand cubic feet. Higher prices, lower interest expense and lower taxes helped the production and gathering business increase adjusted quarterly earnings by $8.5 million.

## Ohio expands the regulated business

National Fuel completed its purchase of CenterPoint Energy’s Ohio gas utility on October 1, adding approximately 335,000 customers and [doubling utility rate base](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000070145/000007014526000037/nfg-9302026xexhibit99x8k.htm?ref=bullished.co)—the assets on which regulators permit a return.

The company’s businesses span Appalachian gas production and gathering, pipeline transportation and storage, and utility service. Its operations have been centered in Pennsylvania and western New York; the Ohio purchase expands its utility footprint.

Management expects utility earnings to increase in fiscal 2027 through the Ohio addition, New York’s multi-year rate settlement and Pennsylvania’s approved [$10.4 million](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/04/3395913/0/en/national-fuel-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-fiscal-2026-earnings.html?ref=bullished.co) rate increase. Pipeline and storage earnings are also expected to grow, helped by the Tioga Pathway and Shippingport Lateral projects, which entered service on November 1.

Capital spending for the utility and pipeline businesses is projected at $490 million–$580 million. Production and gathering spending is forecast at [$600 million–$640 million](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/national-fuel-gas-co-nfg-231431248.html?ref=bullished.co), excluding potential discretionary land purchases of $50 million–$100 million. Expected gas output is 400 billion–435 billion cubic feet, incorporating estimated price-related marketing curtailments during October.

## Shareholders would receive Seneca shares

The planned separation would leave National Fuel focused on regulated utility, pipeline and storage operations. The production and gathering company is expected to take the Seneca Resources name and list on the New York Stock Exchange.

“Upon completion of the separation, National Fuel will become a fully rate-regulated natural gas company with approximately $5 billion in rate base and a strong growth profile,” David P. Bauer, National Fuel Gas president and chief executive officer, said in the [earnings statement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000070145/000007014526000037/nfg-9302026xexhibit99x8k.htm?ref=bullished.co).

National Fuel expects to distribute at least 80.1% of the production and gathering company’s shares proportionately to its shareholders and retain up to 19.9%. It intends to dispose of the retained stake in a tax-efficient way to strengthen its balance sheet.

National Fuel continues to expect the separation in the second half of calendar 2027\. Until completion, production and gathering results remain part of the company’s consolidated earnings.

Learn

- [Item 2.02: results of operations →](https://www.bullished.co/learn/8-k-items-explained/#item-202-results-of-operations)  
From 8-K Items Explained: What Every Item Code From 1.01 To 9.01 Tells You, With Examples

### Sources

- [8-K Filing — NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000070145/000007014526000037/nfg-20261104.htm?ref=bullished.co) — SEC EDGAR
- [Exhibit nfg-9302026xexhibit99x8k.htm — NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO 8-K exhibit](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000070145/000007014526000037/nfg-9302026xexhibit99x8k.htm?ref=bullished.co) — SEC EDGAR
- [National Fuel Gas Co (NFG) (Q4 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Full-Year Results, ...](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/national-fuel-gas-co-nfg-231431248.html?ref=bullished.co) — Yahoo Finance
- [National Fuel Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/04/3395913/0/en/national-fuel-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-fiscal-2026-earnings.html?ref=bullished.co) — globenewswire.com