> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bullished.co/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Moderna Counts On Its Patient Data To Keep AI Rivals From Catching Up - URL: https://www.bullished.co/moderna-counts-on-its-patient-data-to-keep-ai-rivals-from-catching-up-4a32e684/ - Published: 2026-11-06T14:26:45.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-06T14:26:45.000Z - Description: Melanoma results expand the evidence behind its individualized cancer therapy, but deeper patient analysis still has limits. - Author: Matteo Parrino - Tags: Earnings, MRNA, Industry: Healthcare [Moderna](https://www.bullished.co/tag/mrna/), which develops mRNA medicines and vaccines, is counting on its expanding cancer-trial data to help defend its individualized treatments against competitors using better artificial intelligence, President Stephen Hoge argued on the company’s earnings call Friday. The melanoma trial has increased its patient experience by almost a factor of 10, Hoge said—but converting that experience into better treatment designs remains a research task. ## The evidence behind the algorithm A Jefferies analyst asked whether rapidly improving AI could let competitors catch up with Moderna’s treatment-design software. Hoge’s answer centered on clinical experience: knowing which selected tumor targets provoke an immune response, rather than relying only on predictions. The selection software helps determine what goes into each patient’s treatment. Hoge described the entire design process as part of the drug and called it “a proprietary feature of our platform.” Moderna and Merck are developing the individualized cancer therapy together. Its earlier mid-stage melanoma study generated information on 5,000 neoantigens—tumor-specific targets—across more than 100 participants, Hoge said. Patients in that study have been followed for five years. The newly reported melanoma trial substantially enlarges that evidence base. Hoge said the other nine studies underway could expand patient experience by another factor of five. Moderna intends to feed what it learns about immune-cell responses back into designs for future patients. “That data is a goldmine,” Hoge said. His argument makes clinical evidence, not simply ownership of software, central to Moderna’s claimed competitive protection. ## Melanoma supplies the clinical test The strongest evidence for the approach comes from a randomized late-stage trial involving more than 1,100 patients with surgically removed stage 2b through 4 melanoma. Moderna Chief Development Officer David Berman said adding the individualized therapy to pembrolizumab reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42% compared with pembrolizumab alone. At two years, 82.2% of patients receiving the combination remained free of recurrence, compared with 70% receiving pembrolizumab alone. Berman described the result as the first positive late-stage trial of an individualized cancer vaccine and the first such trial showing a benefit over anti-PD-1 therapy in melanoma treatment after surgery. A separate, prespecified analysis excluded patients who relapsed or withdrew before receiving their intended vaccine or placebo injection. In that population, the risk reduction was 49%, with two-year recurrence-free survival of 84.2% for the combination and 70.4% for pembrolizumab alone. Those figures describe a narrower treated population, distinct from the trial’s main analysis. The combination’s safety findings were consistent with the known profiles of the treatments, Berman said. Pembrolizumab-associated adverse events of interest occurred in 36% of combination patients and 35% of patients receiving pembrolizumab alone. The most common combination-arm reactions were fever, injection-site pain and fatigue, generally low-grade and temporary. ## 34 targets, unanswered design questions Successful treatment does not yet settle the best recipe. Asked by a Wolfe Research analyst whether more tumor targets would improve the therapy, Berman said melanoma offers several hundred to choose from and that 34 selected targets had proved sufficient in the trial. Roughly one in three generated a T-cell response, although Berman said the proportion could be higher as researchers refine their analysis. “I'm not sure more is better,” he said. A JPMorgan analyst pressed on a different constraint: whether Moderna actually has enough patient samples for the detailed work needed to answer those questions. Berman confirmed that an earlier deep immune-monitoring analysis involved seven patients. Such monitoring requires substantial blood collection, and those were the patients willing to participate. Berman said more patients are available across the trial. Researchers are also developing methods that use whole-blood gene-expression information to work backward toward identifying which tumor targets immune cells recognize. He expressed hope that the late-stage study would provide insights unavailable from the earlier trial, while cautioning that “it remains to be seen how far we can go.” Early pancreatic-cancer findings show both promise and the limits of interpretation. All 19 evaluable patients generated T-cell responses to selected tumor targets despite the disease’s typically low tumor mutational burden. Berman nevertheless cautioned against drawing treatment-effect conclusions from a study without a comparison group and with differing prior treatments. ## Cancer expansion meets the cash budget Oncology would broaden a business whose 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion came largely from COVID vaccines. Moderna’s product portfolio now includes five approved infectious-disease vaccines, management said, while its cancer program extends into lung, kidney, bladder, pancreatic and gastric cancers. The kidney-cancer study is randomized, includes 282 patients and is driven by the accumulation of clinical events. Berman said results could arrive at the end of this year or early next year. Strong results might support discussions with the FDA, but he characterized the base case as evidence that could inform clinical practice, rather than assuming registration. Current vaccine sales are supporting the broader research effort. Moderna Chief Financial Officer Jamie Mock reported third-quarter revenue of [$1.3 billion](https://qz.com/moderna-raises-revenue-outlook-profit-110626?ref=bullished.co), up 29% from a year earlier, primarily from higher COVID sales. He raised the full-year revenue-growth outlook from up to 10% to 15%–25%; Moderna Chief Executive Officer Stéphane Bancel separately cited 15%–20% in his closing remarks. Research and development spending fell 27% from a year earlier to $583 million. Mock also lowered the full-year research budget by [$200 million](https://qz.com/moderna-raises-revenue-outlook-profit-110626?ref=bullished.co) to $2.7 billion, citing studies winding down and operating efficiencies. Moderna ended the quarter with $8 billion in cash and investments. That included approximately $2.6 billion in net proceeds from convertible financing after fees and transactions intended to limit potential share dilution. Bancel said the financing supports investment in oncology. Hoge said Moderna and Merck are working toward an FDA approval application this year and hope for approval next year if everything goes well. The immediate goal is to bring the tested treatment to patients; the effort to improve its design continues alongside that work. Learn - [How To Read An Earnings Call Transcript: Start With Guidance, Then Find What's Missing →](https://www.bullished.co/learn/how-to-read-an-earnings-call/) How to read an earnings call transcript: check guidance first, look for dropped metrics, compare growth with last quarter, and watch hedged wording. ### Sources - [Moderna (MRNA) earnings Q3 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/06/moderna-mrna-earnings-q3-2026.html?ref=bullished.co) — CNBC - [Moderna raised its sales outlook after Q3 2026 profit beat estimates](https://qz.com/moderna-raises-revenue-outlook-profit-110626?ref=bullished.co) — qz.com - [Moderna stock rises on Q3 beat, guidance hike (MRNA:NASDAQ)](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4668015-moderna-stock-rises-q3-beat-guidance-hike?ref=bullished.co) — seekingalpha.com - [Moderna Soared 8% on Cancer Data. Friday’s Report Shows Whether It Can Afford the Pipeline](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/moderna-soared-8-cancer-data-154947561.html?ref=bullished.co) — Yahoo Finance - [Moderna notches small profit as it prioritizes work on cancer vaccines](https://endpoints.news/moderna-notches-small-profit-as-it-prioritizes-work-on-cancer-vaccines/?ref=bullished.co) — endpoints.news ### More on Moderna - [Moderna Posts $162 Million Quarterly Profit And Lifts 2026 Revenue Growth Outlook To 15% To 25%](https://www.bullished.co/moderna-posts-162-million-quarterly-profit-and-lifts-2026-revenue-growth-outlook-to-15-to-68644d33/) - [Moderna Stock Surges 12% On First Day In The Nasdaq-100, Adding Nearly $10 Billion To Reach Highest Level Since 2022](https://www.bullished.co/moderna-stock-surges-12-on-first-day-in-the-nasdaq-100-adding-nearly-10-billion-to-reach-highest-level-since-2022/) [All Moderna (MRNA) coverage →](https://www.bullished.co/tag/mrna/)